Last year, in the days leading up to the draft, an AFC general manager told me that the 2024 NFL draft had maybe six or seven prospects that, had they been eligible, would’ve been the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. Then, he rattled off the names: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr., Olu Fashanu, Brock Bowers and Dallas Turner.
All, he said, were better than anyone in last year’s class at their position.
Since then, others have entered the fray such as Jayden Daniels, Joe Alt and Malik Nabers. Some in the group have leveled off, and teams have had time to dig in. And with that reset complete just a few days away from Thursday’s first round, the conclusion I’ve gotten from teams is that while this year’s group is really good at the top, it may not be quite as complete as a lot of personnel people were hoping it would be last May.
“I’d say it’s probably not as strong as the perception of it is out there,” says one NFC GM. “It took some body blows with the number of guys who went back to school. I think it’s kind of like any other draft now. But, yeah, there’s a misconception out there that it’s this out-of-this-world draft year. There’s a point where it’s really going to fall off.”
And when we get to that point next weekend, you’ll probably have stopped watching anyway.
So with that said, welcome to our annual draft needs column. Every year, in this space, we work with a few pro scouting departments to best ascertain how teams see their rivals’ needs. As such, some needs listed here are obvious, while others are a year or two ahead of losing a free agent, or a veteran aging out.
In other words, the needs here are based on how teams see their opponents’ draft, which I hope gives all of you the clearest view on how each will approach the weekend.
And that’s where the above NFC GM’s evaluation comes into play. He did agree that the top of the draft is strong. Some premium positions such as receiver and corner should bring great depth in the top 100 picks or so. And we already know the talent at the quarterback position.
But early on Day 3, the quality of players available falls off, and there will be guys selected that teams see on the same level as undrafted free agents. It’s going to impact the value of late-round picks, and could also weigh down trades earlier in the draft as a result.
We’ll have more on this in the takeaways, but it’s mostly, as the GM said, because of the lower number of underclassmen in the draft. Only 58 declared this year, down from a record 130 three years ago. That’s largely due to NIL and the transfer portal making it easier (and more attractive) for guys to stay in school.
So if you’re looking for your favorite team to come away with a half-dozen contributors, this might not be the year. But that shouldn’t make Thursday’s opening round any less fun.
