da brdice： Defeat for either side will spell the end of their involvement in the Champions Trophy
da premier bet： Andrew Miller25-Feb-20253:01
How will England replace Brydon Carse?
Big Picture: Politics takes back seat in high-stakes match-upFor several febrile weeks at the turn of the year, it was impossible to ignore the political mission-creep of England versus Afghanistan in the Champions Trophy. And yet, it’s not impossible that a cricket match will be allowed to take centre stage, after all, in Lahore on Wednesday. A potentially fascinating one, too.To deal with the frivolous keep-politics-out-of-sport top line first, this is now a must-win clash for the two winless sides in Group B. Australia’s washout against South Africa in Rawalpindi has changed little in that regard, except that it guarantees that, if either team loses in Lahore, they will now be sunk without a trace, rather than relying on snookers and net run-rates when they play the table-toppers later this week.And, before we get bogged down in the baggage that this contest has acquired, there’s plenty of recent on-field intrigue to drill down into too. Afghanistan’s historic victory in Delhi at the 2023 World Cup has seen to that. It wasn’t the result that ended the reign of the 2019 champions – the tournament’s drawn-out itinerary meant no swift end to their humiliation – but it did unquestionably show them up as plodding, timid and past their collective sell-by date.Eighteen months on, similar concerns endure for England, even as they embark on their white-ball Bazball reboot. On the one hand, their five-wicket loss to Australia was a game of fine margins, none more galling than Jofra Archer’s glaring miss in the deep at a pivotal juncture of the chase. On the other hand, they put an apparently hefty 351 on the board yet still got steamrolled with almost three overs to spare. Not even Ben Duckett’s tournament-record 165 could suffice for a side whose reticence runs deep, no matter what positive messaging may have been carried across from Brendon McCullum’s Test dressing-room.Ben Duckett produced the goods in Lahore – but England still went down•Associated Press
On balance, therefore, would you rather be in England’s shoes – confused as to why your best is still not enough and, in the case of their captain Jos Buttler, vaguely cognisant of the implications of another early tournament exit – or Afghanistan’s – fresh from a shoddy display against South Africa that was so far from the new standards that they set themselves that the only way, surely, is up?Afghanistan’s 107-run loss in Karachi was studded with shoddy fielding, including a glaring missed run-out, and capped by a batting effort that was sunk inside the first 15 overs. Rahmat Shah showed the requisite mettle with a 92-ball 90, but Rashid Khan’s breezy 18 from 13 balls at No. 9 was their second-best score. After their march to the T20 World Cup semi-finals, not to mention four wins at the 2023 World Cup which secured them their Champions Trophy berth, this squad expects better of themselves these days.Cue England, then, the perfect opponents for teams in need of a little extra incentive to raise their games.In truth, the protests about this fixture have dissipated in recent weeks, but that’s not to say there won’t be more discussion as the contest gets underway, or that the underlying issues are no longer worthy of airtime. On the contrary, when the Labour MP Tonia Antoniazzi wrote to the ECB protesting the “sex apartheid” of Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, on whose watch women’s sport has effectively been banned since 2021, she was merely articulating the same unease that many individual boards were already feeling – including both England and Australia, who had previously pledged to suspend bilateral ties while the Taliban remain in power.That letter had been signed by a cross-party group of 160 British MPs, but the UK prime minister Keir Starmer echoed the ECB’s line, that this is a matter for the ICC as a collective body, not for individual boards. And that, broadly speaking, has been the final word on the matter for now. Certainly it’s a far cry from the situation that Nasser Hussain’s World Cup squad found themselves in back in 2003, when – amid similar political posturing – it was left to the players themselves to debate, and ultimately carry out, a unilateral boycott of Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe.Besides, as Buttler reiterated on the eve of the game, there is still a place for sport as “a source of hope and enjoyment” in tough times … much as was the case on the eve of the 2023 clash, in fact, when Afghanistan’s own aim had been to bring a bit of joy back to their country after a devastating earthquake in Herat had killed several thousand people. The issues may be different, but the underlying truth remains the same. When there are forces beyond your control, whatever they may be, all you can do is produce your best and hope it contributes to the greater good.Form guide England: LLLLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Afghanistan: LWWWLIn the spotlight: Mark Wood and Rashid KhanTo judge by its early showings, white-ball Bazball is distinctly Route One. Stack the side with the rawest pace imaginable, and let guile and subtlety go hang. It’s a policy that you can imagine being utterly explosive on its good days, but these have been all too infrequent so far in McCullum’s tenure. Mark Wood’s display against Australia epitomised this. His ferocious powerplay spell featured barely a delivery below 150kph, and landed the key early wicket of Steven Smith. But by the back end of Australia’s 352-run chase, Glenn Maxwell was making room to leg with impunity, safe in the knowledge that any sort of connection would go the distance. Eight of Wood’s ten ODIs since the start of the 2023 World Cup have now come in ICC events. Nine wickets at 58.44 and an economy rate above 6.5 imply that the Aussies aren’t the only team who are ready for what he’s being primed to unleash.Rashid Khan has memories of success against England to fall back on•Afghanistan Cricket Board
England’s struggles against high-quality spin have been protracted across formats, and few spinners come more highly rated than Afghanistan’s gun leggie Rashid Khan. Last week, he was knocked off the top of the ICC’s ODI rankings by Maheesh Theekshana, largely due to inactivity, and though he went wicketless in Afghanistan’s opening Group B loss to South Africa, he has happy memories of his most recent outing against England: figures of 3 for 37 in that famous World Cup encounter in Delhi included the winning moment itself, a slider to Wood that sealed a 69-run success, their first over England in any format. As Adam Zampa demonstrated in Australia’s high-scoring win in Lahore on Saturday, stump-threatening wristspinners can unlock even the flattest conditions.Team newsBrydon Carse had been one of the breakthrough bowlers of England’s winters, but his battered toes contributed to an untimely breakdown against Australia, as his seven overs were dispatched at a tick below ten an over. He has now been ruled out of the tournament, with Jamie Overton the likeliest like-for-like replacement – and if Lahore’s conditions remain as true as in the first match, this might even include the impact that his powerful lower-order hitting has often promised, but rarely delivered.England: 1 Phil Salt, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Jamie Smith (wk), 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Jos Buttler (capt), 7 Liam Livingstone, 8 Jamie Overton, 9 Jofra Archer, 10 Adil Rashid, 11 Mark WoodHashmatullah Shahidi, Afghanistan’s captain, hinted that the same XI that tripped up against South Africa would take the field in Lahore – unsurprising in light of his pointed but uncontroversial observation that “the England team struggles a bit against spinners”. In Rashid, Mohammad Nabi and Noor Ahmad, they will have to negotiate 30 overs of the finest, and most varied, slow bowlers in subcontinental conditions, although they will at least be spared a reunion with their chief destroyer at the World Cup, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, who has been managing injury in recent months and is not currently involved in the 50-over format.Afghanistan: (possible) 1 Ibrahim Zadran, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Sediqullah Atal, 4 Rahmat Shah, 5 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Gulbadin Naib, 9 Rashid Khan, 10 Noor Ahmad, 11 Fazalhaq FarooqiPitch and conditionsEngland got a clear idea of Lahore’s run-laden conditions in their tournament opener, and more of the same is in prospect on a pristine new surface. The weather, however, could be decidedly cooler. There’s been rain around on the eve of the contest, and while it is not expected to be a factor during the match, the cloud cover could remain in situ … a possible boon for England’s pace-dominant attack.Stats and trivia England have lost five ODIs in a row, their joint-worst run since losing six in a row in their home ODI series against Australia in 2009. Auspiciously, they followed that performance with an improbable semi-final place, weeks later, in the Champions Trophy in South Africa. (Although they did then get crushed by the eventual champions, Australia, once more…) Rahmat Shah, who made 90 in defeat against South Africa, needs 41 runs to become the first Afghanistan batter to reach 4000 in ODIs. Rashid needs two more wickets to become the first Afghanistan bowler to reach 200 in ODIs. Duckett, England’s centurion in defeat against Australia, needs four runs to reach 1000 in the ODI format. Phil Salt isn’t far behind, on 968 runs, while Adil Rashid and Liam Livingstone are both in the 900s too.Quotes”We are cricket players, we are sportspersons, we are sportsmen. So, we control what we can do inside the ground. We don’t worry about what’s happening out of the ground.”
Afghanistan captain Hashmatullah Shahidi plays a straight bat to the political chat“Any time as an England captain you want to perform well, and you want to lead your team to winning games of cricket. We haven’t been doing that enough in the recent past. But as soon as you catch yourself thinking about any negative things, you try to completely flip that and focus on all the positive things that could go right, and where you can take the team. I’m very much focused on that.”
