The Big Ten enters a new era with the entrance of four former PAC-12 teams in Oregon, USC, Washington and UCLA, marking a new era for the storied conference.
After producing a National Champion in Michigan last season, the Big Ten will look to do it again in the first year of a revamped league that will also feature an expanded College Football Playoff. With Oregon joining the fold, the Big Ten is set to compete at the highest level alongside Ohio State, the defending champion Wolverines and Penn State.
Let’s set the stage for the 16-team Big Ten with a look at some teams we are buying, selling, keeping an eye on, and backing to win the league!
Big Ten Conference Preview and Best Bets Indiana Over 5.5 Wins (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Hoosiers usher in the Curt Cignetti era after the 2023 Sun Belt Coach of the Year led James Madison to as seamless a transition to the FBS ranks as possible, compiling a 19-4 record in two seasons in the highest level of college football.
Cignetti has won at all stops along the way, and now has revamped the Indiana roster that resembles nothing of the team that bottomed out with a 3-9 record in 2023.
The team has a ton of new faces, including Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who was the MAC Most Valuable Player in 2022 before a season ending knee injury held back his performance in 2023. He will have a talented group of skill position players that includes former Bobcats teammate Miles Cross, Texas Tech transfer Myles Price and JMU’s Elijah Sarratt, who had 11,99 yards through the air last season.
On defense, more Dukes’ transfers litter the roster, namely defensive lineman James Carpenter and edge Mikail Kamara.
This Indiana team has far more talent than the 2023 version, and will benefit from a relatively easy schedule in the crowded Big Ten.
The Hoosiers will be big favorites in all three non-conference games against FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte in addition to having winnable games on the docket in Bloomington in Big Ten play.
The Hoosiers will have games lined within a touchdown at home against Maryland, Nebraska, Washington and Purdue with road trips to UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State all featuring opportunities to qualify for a bowl game in the first season under Cignetti.
With an injection of veteran talent, Indiana has a far higher ceiling than this win total indicates.
Washington Under 6.5 Wins (+100, BET365)
Following a National Championship Game appearance in 2023, the Washington Huskies look nothing like that team.
Gone are Micahel Penix Jr. and the top four wide receivers that formed the best passing attack in the country. Same for head coach Kalen DeBoer, who cashed in his chips for the head coaching job at Alabama. The offense ranks in the country in returning production, and the defense isn’t much better, ranked 99th in RP.
New coach Jedd Fisch will have his work cut out for him with a new roster that is transitioning to the Big Ten.
While he hit the portal to bring in Arizona running back Jonah Coleman as well as Cal transfer Jeremiah Hunter, there are too many questions on the offensive side of the ball to hold up against a defensive-minded league.
Further, the defense loses star cornerback Jabbar Muhammad and pass rusher Bralen Trice.
This win total is more of a guess than an accurate assessment of all the moving pieces, which is always a signal to buy the downside rather than the upside.
The team has a fairly soft opening schedule that features Weber State, Western Michigan, a neutral site game against Washington State in the Apple Cup, and Northwestern, before the schedule picks up.
The team will travel across the country on a short week to play Rutgers, before a game against Michigan and at Iowa. After a BYE, it’s off to Indiana before a home game against USC and roadie at Penn State before hosting UCLA.
The team gets a BYE week before closing at Oregon.
Looking at that schedule, there is plenty of directions this season can go for Washington, but on the surface, the team appears to be favored in six games with another one being a true coin flip at Rutgers.
Considering I’m willing to go against a team with question marks, I’m more than willing to say this team trips up as a favorite rather than plays to expectation, making this an easy under bet for me.
Big Ten Dark Horse: Iowa (+4000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
I don’t believe that Iowa is at the same level as the top of the new-look Big Ten, but there is a path for this team to be in the Big Ten title conversation come late November based around its schedule.
While I won’t call for an outright B1G title bet, the over win total of 7.5 is very enticing at -150 (60% implied probability).
Before I break down the state of the Hawkeyes, let’s start with this simple fact.
Heading into the season, Iowa is set to be favored in all but one game this season, at Ohio State.
The Hawkeyes have been a Big Ten title game fixture over the last several seasons behind its elite defense, and not much will change this season. Despite losing Cooper DeJean to the pros, the team still ranks inside the top 10 in returning production after ranking second in yards per play allowed and fifth in EPA/Play.
What has held the team back is its piss poor offense. It reached a boiling point last season as the team fired longtime offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz after the team ranked 131st in yards per play and EPA/Play.
New OC Tim Lester will hopefully push the team out of the basement of the nation and, considering its nearly impossible to be worse, I’m banking on some mild improvement.
If Iowa can be even below average on offense, the defense will be stout enough to lead to plenty of wins on the record.
Given the easy schedule, with its most difficult non-Ohio State games coming at home against Iowa State (non-conference), Wisconsin and Nebraska, the Hawkeyes are set up for a big season.
Big Ten Championship Best Bet: Oregon (+210, FD)
I rate the Ducks higher than the Buckeyes this season, who have a far more potent offense and a much better defense entering the 2024 campaign.
Oregon replaced first round pick Bo Nix with a very similar quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, who can fit seamlessly into OC Will Stein’s system that ranked second in yards per play, second in EPA/Play and first in points per drive by scoring more than four points per possession.
I see little to no drop-off between the two QB’s and the same goes for the rest of the offense that returns four of five starters on the offensive line and replaced now pro Troy Franklin with highly touted transfer Evan Stewart to complement the returning Tez Johnson.
The offense will be arguably the best in the country and Gabriel is the rightful co-favorite for the Heisman Trophy entering the season with the numbers he can accumulate in this QB-friendly scheme, but its the defense that makes Oregon a legitimate National Championship contender.
The numbers last season were impressive, 12th in yards per play and 14th in EPA/Play, but the team did allow 24 or more in five games, including 30 or more in both losses to Washington.
This season, head coach Dan Lanning bolstered the unit that returns the likes of Jordan Burch by landing Jamarree Cladwell from Houston and Derrick Hammon from Michigan State. However, the biggest gets was in the secondary, fortifying the unit with Jabbar Muhammad from rival Washington and Kobe Savage from Kansas State.
The schedule has some potential rest disadvantages, featuring a string of eight straight games between Week 5 and 12 that includes road trips to Michigan and Wisconsin, but the team hosts Ohio State in the biggest game of the year in the conference, one that I believe the Ducks will win, solidifying itself as the best team in the conference.
It’s all systems go for the Ducks, the best team in the new-look Big Ten this season.
